Week 4 is here with a bullet, folks. The crack staff at CFG headquarters had their work cut out for them this week compiling the FFCPI as there are plenty of dicey matchups on the docket. Be very careful this week with your lineups and I get the sense we are in for a few surprises on Saturday.
Better late than never, I present to you our ever-popular Start 'Em, Sit 'Em feature. We were hoping to get Kevin Mount's two cents in here again this week, but he's busy traveling the world for his "real job". He'll be back in the mix next week. As always, we try to avoid stating the obvious in this column, and highlight some players that might not be top of mind. We know that YOU know to start Case Keenum versus Georgia State.
Let's dive in...
TODD DEVRIES
Start BCS:
QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse vs. Toledo:
I’m going out on a limb a bit with this one. The Syracuse running game was been non-existent in recent weeks, and Nassib has thrown the ball 28, 37, and 37 times to kick off the year. He has two capable wideouts in Alec Lemon and Van Chew, and a reliable tight end in Nick Provo. But the real reason for his inclusion on this list is the opponent. The Toledo Rockets were shredded by Kellen Moore last week to the tune of 455 passing yards and 5 TDs. Nassib is someone to consider in deeper leagues or BCS formats as a QB2.
RB Davin Meggett, Maryland vs. Temple:
The return of TD vulture D.J. Adams hurts Meggett's fantasy value somewhat. Still, owners who invested a late round pick on Meggett on draft day have to be encouraged with his workload so far - 48 touches through two games. Temple's defense is better at stopping the pass. Meggett would make a nice RB3 this week.
WR Kenny Stills, Oklahoma vs Missouri:
Did you watch this guy last week in Tallahassee as he dropped a 7-125-1 bomb on the Seminoles? Very, very impressive. Arizona State passed for 353 yards and 3 scores against Mizzou a few weeks ago. I expect the Sooners to do the same, with Stills getting his share of production.
Start Non-BCS
QB Trent Steelman, Army vs. Ball State:
The Man of Steel has produced 36 and 29 fantasy points over the past two weeks. A below average Ball State defense is up next. Ride the hot hand with Steelman if you need a solid QB2 option in All-FBS formats.
RB Reggie Bullock, East Carolina vs. UAB:
I’m digging deep on this one for those of you in large leagues who might be desperate for RB help. UAB is ranked No. 119 in the country in fantasy points allowed to running backs, giving up 43 and 37 points in their first two games. Bullock isn’t a household name, but in this high-powered ECU offense he should produce 60-100 yards of total offense and find the endzone.
WR Darius Johnson, SMU vs. Memphis:
Johnson has been consistent, but quiet this season so far, putting up 10, 11 and 17 points. Memphis gave up 5 TDs and nearly 500 receiving yards combined to the wide receivers from Mississippi State and Arkansas State. I don’t see Zach Line scoring 5 TDs again. The ‘Stangs will get a couple via the air. Don’t be surprised if DJ finds paydirt against this woeful defensive unit.
Sit BCS:
QB Geno Smith, West Virginia vs. LSU:
This one might seem obvious, but judging the the number of Expert Advice questions we received on the subject I wanted to include it here. This is one of the rare occasions where we advise towards sitting one of your studs. The LSU defense is just plain nasty. Unless you have no other options, strongly consider giving Geno a rest this week.
RB Cameron Marshall, Arizona State vs. USC:
Marshall has been a bit of a fantasy tease this season. On just 11 touches in the opener, he racked up 25 fantasy points. Since then, he’s totaled 17 points on 39 touches. He faces a USC defense this week who is giving up 10 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs.
WR James Rodgers, Oregon State vs. UCLA:
Much has been made about Rodgers’ return, and we are glad to see him back on the field. But we are not ready to insert him into our fantasy starting lineups. Hell, we’re not even ready to have him occupy a roster spot. Wait and see how Rodgers looks this week, then reassess.
Sit Non-BCS:
QB Austin Davis, Southern Miss vs. Virginia:
The UVA defense has actually been pretty stingy against the pass this season, giving up 171 and 143 passing yards to Indiana and UNC. Davis has been banged up this year and has not looked sharp. Bench Davis this week, and hope he is healthy for the C-USA stretch run.
RB Lennon Creer, La Tech vs. Mississippi State:
Creer suffered multiple injuries last week and left the game for a time before returning. He’ll play this week, but don’t expect a big performance against a decent SEC Mississippi State defense on road.
WR Darius Bright, Hawaii vs. UC Davis:
“Big Puppy” has been a big disappointment this year. 3 catches for 28 yards against UNLV? That’s a giant red flag. Additionally, Bright has been in and out of practice this week due to personal reasons. Get him out of your starting lineup until he proves himself to be fantasy worthy.
JOE ARPASI
BCS Only Start:
QB Nathan Scheelhaase Illinois vs. Western Michigan:
Scheelhaase had his struggles at home last week against Arizona State. But he has been great in his other starts and week four brings up a favorable small school opponent. Western Michigan will put up more of a fight than Arkansas Sate and South Dakota State did in weeks one and two, so you can expected a higher fantasy output for week four.
RB Chris Polk Washington vs. California:
Polk ran extremely hard last week against Nebraska, continually churning up second effort yards. Cal doesn’t have as stiff a run defense as Nebraska and this game will be played in the friendly confines of Husky Stadium. Look for Polk and break one hundred yards once again.
WR Ryan Swope Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State:
So far Jeff Fuller has been playing on one good leg, and that has opened the door for others like Swope to steal production. If last year was a sign of things to come, then this should be another high scoring affair. Although A&M will try to keep things on the ground, Oklahoma State will score enough to force the Aggies into passing the ball throughout the game. This is only a good thing for Swope.
Non BCS Start:
QB Corey Robinson Troy vs. Middle Tennessee:
Robinson has faced some stiff competition so far in 2011 and that has held his fantasy value in check. Now the fun begins with the Blue Raiders up next. Last week he threw for 373 yards, three touchdowns and one interception against Arkansas.
RB Lance Dunbar North Texas vs. Indiana:
Indiana has been no defensive power house. There will be a packed house for the unveiling of North Texas’ new stadium. Dunbar and company should have all the extra juice needed to give the Hoosiers everything they got. If the o-line can find a way to play inspired, than Dunbar has the chance to do some nice things on the ground and in the air.
WR Nick Harwell Miami, OH vs. Bowling Green:
Harwell didn’t get to make his 2011 premier until last week (due to a suspension), but he got started in fine fashion with a 12 reception, 162 yard effort. Although he was held out of the endzone, he did face a Big Ten school in Minnesota. Now he has a prime match-up with Bowling Green. Both teams can score, so this has the potential for a shootout.
BCS Only Sit:
QB Tajh Boyd Clemson vs. Florida State:
It seems like Boyd’s play has been improving each week. But the Tigers could be walking into a trap this week. Florida State is coming off the showdown with the Sooners and they should look to rebound in a very aggressive way this week. Meanwhile, Clemson had a hugely emotional victory over national champ Auburn last week. The Clemson team is still young enough to have a hard time moving on from a win like that and focusing their efforts.
RB Rodney Stewart Colorado at Ohio State:
Stewart has not been able to live up to expectations this season as the heart and soul of the Colorado offense. The problem is that the overall talent level of the offense isn’t there to steadily move the ball on the ground. This is one reason why the passing game has had more value over the course of the 2011 season so far. Take all this and add it with a road trip to “The Horseshoe” and it creates a gloomy forecast for this Saturday.
WR Alshon Jeffery South Carolina vs. Vanderbilt:
Don’t sleep on Vandy in this one. Vanderbilt’s defense has been tough against the pass and they have a knack for creating turnovers. South Carolina can’t throw the ball and they have to rely on running back Marcus Lattimore running it 30 times a game. It’s most likely that Jeffery will be average but not spectacular. As long as Garcia continues to throw the ball like Edward Scissorhands it’s best to leave Jeffery on the bench.
Non BCS Sit:
QB Bryan Ellis UAB at East Carolina:
This game looked to be very juicy not too long ago, but Ellis was injured in week three and his play reflected a guy that wasn’t running on all cylinders. Even if Ellis plays it will be hard to imagine him making a drastic one week turnaround in play when he’s coming off of an injury.
RB Brandon Oliver Buffalo vs. Connecticut:
Oliver has been a workhorse so far, but he is running into a tough defense. UConn should jump up out to a lead in this one, taking the ball out of Oliver’s hands as the Bulls play catch-up via the air. This is a typical case of small fish running into a bigger fish.
WR Phillip Payne UNLV vs. South Utah:
Payne put up big numbers last week against Hawaii by catching seven passes for 98 yards and two touchdowns. In the two games prior he only caught a combined five passes for 32 yards. The safe thing to do this week is leave Payne on the bench despite the nice match-up and see if he can be trusted to produce.
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