When you boil it down, there are really three situations that can throw a serious wrench into projecting stats for a player:

* He’s in a position battle.
* He’s adapting to a new offensive scheme and/or coaching staff.
* He’s returning from an injury.

Here are a few signal callers that were tough to figure out for one or more of the reasons listed above.


Todd's Toughest to Project

Steven Sheffield & Taylor Potts (Texas Tech)
“Sticks” has all three of the factors listed above working against him.  But perhaps the biggest knock on him is his health.  All things being equal, he seems to have the edge on Taylor Potts for the job.  If you could guarantee me he’d be healthy for the entire season, he would shoot up the Big Board rankings. It’s a big “if”.

Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State)
Weeden is getting lots of preseason hype for one reason:  Dana Holgorsen.  Holgorsen is a Mike Leach disciple who made the Houston Cougar’s offense hum last year.  However, Weeden has very little experience and he’ll be working with an equally unproven receiving corps and offensive line.

Robert Griffin (Baylor)
His talent is undeniable, but the stability of his knee has to still be considered a question mark.  Less than one year removed from blowing out his ACL, will RG3 be able to run like he did in 2008 or will he be a bit tentative? 

Cameron Newton (Auburn)
It’s not too difficult to figure out a ballpark figure for Newton’s passing yards, but his rushing stats are another story.  How much will he be asked to run?  Will he get his number called at the goal line?  Can he jump into the SEC fire and succeed?  Lots of questions.

Steven Ensminger & Ross Jenkins (La Tech)
With the addition of offensive minds Sonny Dykes and Tony Franklin to the coaching staff, the Bulldogs’ quarterback position is thrust into the fantasy spotlight.  But who will get the job?  Ross Jenkins is the returning starter while Steven Ensminger is a converted tight end who lit it up this spring.  How quickly can either adapt to the new offense?


Kevin's Toughest to Project

Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State)
It’s the age old question with Pryor: Will Tressell finally unleash him and his athletic ability or will his fantasy value continue to be stymied by the Sweater Vest’s conservative nature?

Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State)
It's his first year starting in a new system. The system is the key here obviously. Does he produce huge in his first year in a pass happy offense or just average?

Austin Davis & Martevious Young (Southern Miss)
Davis’s foot injury is still a concern and Young looked sharp in his absence last fall and this spring.  The job is supposedly Davis’s to lose, but we won’t know for sure until August camp heats up.

Steven Sheffield & Taylor Potts (Texas Tech)
Similar situation as Southern Miss.

Dayne Crist (Notre Dame)
We all know what Brian Kelly does with his QB’s.  Just look at what he did with Tony Pike for goodness sakes. Will Crist flourish in his first year at the helm coming off an ACL injury?


Joe's Toughest to Project

Garrett Gilbert (Texas)
The coaches put so much of the offense on the shoulders of Colt McCoy over the past three seasons. It is hard to believe that so much of the offensive production will go run through Gilbert in 2010. Although Gilbert will be a quality fantasy player in 2010, it is very easy to over-project Gilbert based on the numbers that Colt McCoy was able to generate.

Steven Sheffield/Taylor Potts (Texas Tech)
Both QBs started during the 2009 season, but both entered the spring in a position battle. Both players were injured in the spring and left us with no solid information on the situation. Although Sheffield is the better of the two players, he has been battling multiple injury issues. The fact that one guy hasn't grabbed the bull by the horns, and that they both have injury concerns means that its likely no one player will start all twelve games in 2010.

Geno Smith (West Virginia)
West Virginia Fans have been excited to see what Smith can do at the helm of the offense. But Smith missed the spring while recovering form injury. Although he looks to be the front runner for the starting job, he is coming back from injury with no reps to mesh with the WRs in the spring. How well can Smith live up to last year's offensive production is still to be seen.

Omar Clayton/Mike Clausen (UNLV)
The UNLV offense has sleeper potential written all over it. The QB position is one of the areas that can pay off when drafting late round sleepers. Clayton and Clausen each have their strengths in the ongoing position battle, but no real ground was made over the course of the spring. It is just too hard to tell if one player will stand out as the starter, or if it will be a rotating situation once again.

Steven Ensminger (Louisiana Tech)
Reports out of spring camp show Ensminger as the leader to win the starting QB job from last year's starter Ross Jenkins. Jenkins has the rushing ability that the new offense utilizes, but Ensminger is a more polished passer. Since Ensminger doesn't have the rushing ability to carry the rock consistently, it is hard to tell if the offense will be more pass oriented than expected. 
 

Check out the entire Toughest to Project series:

* Quarterbacks
* Running Backs
* Wide Receivers
* Tight Ends