and Jon Millman
Last Updated: Jul 05, 2013 12:46 PM
This is the fifth in a series of articles geared toward winning your college fantasy football leagues.
5th Commandment - Thou Shall Wait on Thy Quarterback
If you plan right, your QB will be there. Unless a mega-stud dual threat falls in your lap early in your draft, your best bet is to wait and be one of the last owners in your league to snag a signal caller. Almost every year the top tier of QB's goes way too early.
Once these teams take their first QB they are usually a little behind at either running back or receiver and won't take their second QB for a while; this gives you even more time. In a recent mock draft we took our first QB in the 6th round and he was the 9th QB taken off the board. The name doesn't matter, but we have him projected to score 270 points, plus we think he has tons of upside, but that's neither here nor there. A handful of QBs were both taken in the 3rd and we have them at 297 points and 293 points respectively. Over a 12 week season (that's how we project) that's less than 2 points per week difference between our guy and their guys. In the meantime, while teams were picking those QB's we took two great RBs, two Top 5 WRs and a stud TE. You tell me, who got the better value?
Two rounds later we followed up with our 9th ranked QB, effectively getting our 8th and 11th ranked QB, both of whom we think have upside in the 6th and 8th rounds. We were able to come back with another QB that fast because teams were now scrambling to try and find lightning in a bottle at WR and RB , positions which we had long shored up, and we think are much more important.
If you just look at the pure number of quality QB's out there, this theory holds water. In 1-QB leagues, all you need is any of the top 8-12 QB's, and he will score enough points at the position to keep you in the league. But the value that you added to your roster in the meantime, mainly at RB and WR in those earlier rounds, will carry you to the Playoffs. Our strong belief is that WRs are often the difference maker position in leagues as most guys just don't gravitate toward drafting them. By waiting on QB we get to build hopefully the strongest WR corps in our league and our RBs won't suffer too much.
Worst case scenario, the two QB's we took will be average and we will play matchups to squeeze a little more out of them. Best case scenario is one of them plays like a top 5 QB, effectively making him a 2nd or 3rd round pick, if you compare him to where the other QB's were taken.
The point is, unless a ridicolous mega-star dual threat (think Colin Kaepernick or Johnny Manziel of past years) falls in your lap in Round 1 – wait for a QB. You may not end up with the most exciting QB on the field, but what's more exciting – having the best QB, or hoisting the trophy at the end of the year? So let the other guys waste early picks on QBs, and you sit back and wait for a guy that won't underperform by that much. But you see if they can find a Running Back or Wide Receiver who will perform like the guys you take in the 2nd through 4th rounds.
***DISCLAIMER – There are certain leagues where we DO NOT advocate waiting this long on QBs, and sometimes in fact we go after them early. We touched on this in the 1st Commandment, but here are the examples:
-If your league awards 6 points per pass TD, and/or 1 point per 15 yards passing, QBs REALLY should score a lot more than the other positions, so it would be OK to reach for one of the top 5 QBs. I would look to get one of the best 4 or 5 QBs somewhere in the first three rounds.
-One league I am in let's you flex any position in that spot (QB or Defense included). QBs score the most (as in most leagues), so I make sure to not only NOT wait on a QB, I try to take 2 early. Maybe even 2 within the first 4 rounds, as I want a decided advantage over my competition every week at that position.
-If your league has a two-starting QB system, sometimes I will grab a Top 3 QB in the first couple rounds, and wait to snag my QB2 in the middle rounds.