Here is a positional breakdown of past Heisman winners:

  41 - Running Backs
  27 - Quarterbacks
  2 - Wide Receivers
  2 - Ends (Defensive)
  1 - Defensive Back

Seventy-three total Heisman winners.  Zero offensive lineman.  Zero linebackers. Charles Woodson was the last defensive player to win the award (1998),  and one could argue that he wouldn’t have won the award if he didn’t return punts on special teams.  Wide receivers Tim Brown and Desmond Howard also doubled as return specialists to help bolster their cause.  This year, unless Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree starts returning punts, you can cross him off the list of viable Heisman candidates.

The last defensive player to win before Woodson was Notre Dame’s End Leon Hart in 1949.  Nineteen-freaking-forty-nine!  More defensive discrimation:  only three times in seventy-three years did a defensive player finish second for the award.

2.  Another important criteria for winning the Heisman:  you need to play for one of the high-profile traditional powerhouses.  Unless you’re absolutely shattering the record book (Andre Ware, Ty Detmer, Barry Sanders, Ron Dayne), small schools or even mid-level BCS schools rarely produce a winner.  The classic case study to prove this criteria occurred in 1992 when Miami(FL) QB Gino Torretta beat out San Diego State RB Marshall Faulk for the award.  Torretta played for one of the nation’s elite while Faulk wallowed in pre-internet obscurity on the West Coast.  Do you think Faulk might have captured the hardware if he had played for a BCS school?  You bet.  Torretta was above average at best, but his Hurricane team was dominant.  That year, the voters apparently just threw their arms up and said “the hell with it - let’s just give it to the QB of the best team”.

This season, someone like Central Michigan’s Dan LeFevour has zero chance of winning the Heisman.  His numbers are there, but he won’t get nearly enough media coverage.  Not enough hype.

3.  To a large extent, ESPN shapes the Heisman campaign for many of today’s stars.  Play a great game the same night Corso and the boys happen to be at your campus for College Gameday, and you’ll rise to the forefront of Heisman candidates.  It sure helps to have the defining highlight that is etched in the minds of the talking heads on the four-letter network. 

4.  Until recently, Heisman voters “frowned” upon electing underclassmen.  Case in point, 58 of the 73 winners have been SENIORS.  This is just nonsense. Why should your class factor into the equation?  Thankfully, Tim Tebow broke the mold last season and was able win it as a sophomore.  Have the media finally smartened up?  One can only hope…

5.  The final key to winning the Heisman:  carry over some momentum from the previous season.  It is very difficult for a player to burst onto the scene and win the Heisman.  It’s simply too difficult to overcome the hype the other candidates have been building from the preseason, and in some cases, the previous season.  Most voters believe you have to earn your keep in “year one” in order to be considered for the award in “year two”.  It sounds ridiculous, and it is, but sadly it is a reality.

Now that we’ve got the criteria nailed down, let’s turn our attention to this season.  Who’s going to win the Heisman this year?  Well, using our criteria we can easily narrow down the candidates.

• It’ll be either a QB or RB
• It’ll be someone from a high-profile school
• He’ll be someone who can dazzle us with his Sportscenter highlights
• It’ll be a Junior or Senior
• It’ll likely be someone who has built up momentum from 2007

Who fits the mold?  We think the following four players have the best chance to be invited to New York in December.

The Favorites

Chris “Beanie” Wells (RB, Ohio State) - He fits all of the categories above.  Like it or not America, the Buckeyes will be right in the thick of the national title again this year.  Wells is a powerhouse running back who will be the focal point of Tressel’s offensive attack.  Unless he is a complete dud against USC in this year’s “Game of the Century”, Beanie is a shoe-in to make the trek to the Big Apple as a finalist.

Pat White (QB, West Virginia) - He’s seemingly been around forever.  Pat had a great 2007 (if you scratch that ugly loss to Pitt).  Sentiment across the nation is that White could be the get the sympathy vote – a “Lifetime Achievement Award”, so to speak.  It might not be enough to bring home the hardware, but it’ll land him as a finalist.

Chase Daniel (QB, Missouri) -  Chase was a Heisman finalist last season, so he automatically gets thrown into everyone’s preseason short list.  Mizzu should be undefeated heading into October and Daniel will build upon his momentum from last season.  If he can lead his Tigers to even a two-loss season, with his monster stats he’ll be a finalist yet again.

Tim Tebow (QB, Florida) -  Last year’s winner is going to have a tough time taking home the hardware in 2008.  First off, in the eyes of the media he’s old news.  Time to find a fresh face.  Also, we believe his statistics will take a dip this season as Urban Meyer tries to preserve his superstar QB.  We forecast less rushing TD’s this year.  And the injuries to his offensive weapons in the preseason aren’t helping his cause.  He’s got a great shot to make the trip to NYC, but we don’t see him pulling off the Archie Griffin (two time winner).

The Darkhorses

LeSean McCoy (RB, Pittsburgh) - McCoy is our top darkhorse candidate for the Heisman this year.  He needs to have that breakout game on the national stage to truly kick off his campaign.  His chance will come on an October 2nd Thursday night contest against USF.  The Panthers will likely be 4-0 and if LeSean can make an impression in that game, he’ll be thrust right into the mix.  Whether he can stay on everyone’s mind come November will depend upon how long Pitt hangs around the Top 25.

Graham Harrell (QB, Texas Tech) - Red Raider gunslinger seems to have built some momentum from a good 2007 season and he’s going to obliterate the record books in 2008.  Tech could easily be 7-1 heading into November when they face Texas and Oklahoma.  His biggest obstacle to securing a Heisman finalist spot could be his own teammate, WR Michael Crabtree.  Crabtree could steal just enough votes from his QB to leave him on the outside looking in.

RB DeMarco Murray or QB Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) - We believe the Sooners will be right in the thick of the national title mix.  Therefore, whoever is their offensive leader will get plenty of attention.  Both Bradford and Murray will be stars, but from a Heisman voting standpoint one could offset votes for the other.  This happened in 1994 when Kerry Collins and KiJana Carter both finished in the Top 4 Heisman voting.

And the winner is….

Chris Wells.

  All of the ingredients are there for Beanie to take home the Heisman.  It’s his to lose heading into the 2008 season.