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Draft Strategy: Messy Situations

Contributed by: Joe Arpasi
Last Updated: Aug 01, 2010 1:25 AM

When it comes to drafting a fantasy roster, owners want to find players that they can rely on. Part of that comes from doing your homework and understanding the situation that surrounds the player. If a player is in a stable environment where fantasy owners can count on getting what they expect out of the player, then you will have a player that

When it comes to drafting a fantasy roster, owners want to find players that they can rely on. Part of that comes from doing your homework and understanding the situation that surrounds the player. If a player is in a stable environment where fantasy owners can count on getting what they expect out of the player, then you will have a player that won’t provide unnecessary risk to your squad.

Then there are the players on other side of the coin. The ones you can't rely on.  There are many reasons why you may not be able to count on these players, but all of them are stuck in a “messy situation.”  These players are still draftable commodities, but it takes a much larger leap of faith to pull the trigger. Here we examine some if the messy situations that you will have to contend with when drafting your fantasy squad.


AUBURN
Running Back: There are three talented backs that will all see the field this fall. Mario Fannin was the talk of spring camp and should be the starter, while Ontario McCalebb played extensively as a freshman in 2009. True freshman Michael Dyer will see the field, and will eat into the production of the two veterans. What is yet to be seen is how much of a workload Dyer will command.

GEORGIA
Running Back: The Georgia ground game has many things going for it in 2010. They have the most experienced offensive line in the country, and a young QB that the ground game will have to help. Washaun Ealey looks to be the starter, but he has Caleb King right behind him. The coaches like to rotate two backs in the offense, and it’s more than likely that the rushing production will be split once again between these two backs.

HAWAII
Wide Receiver: Greg Salas was one of the top fantasy WRs in 2009. One of the biggest things that helped him in 2009 was the season ending injury to Rodney Bradley. Now Bradley is back and they will both command a large chunk of the production. Although Salas looks to be solid in 2010, don’t expect him to match his 2009 numbers.

LOUISIANA TECH
Quarterback: The battle for the starting job will linger into fall camp, but if the current leader Steven Ensminger can hang onto the job there is a major question at hand. How well can a non-running QB fair from a fantasy standpoint in Tony Franklin’s offense? The offense will be forced to take a different direction with Ensminger at the helm than what we all saw in 2009 from Dwight Dasher.

Running Back: Tennessee transfer Lennon Creer looks to eventually win the battle for the starting RB position. If Ensminger wins out at QB and that position becomes less of a rushing threat, then Creer could see a larger bump in his workload. But predicting exactly what you can get out of Creer is a crapshoot, so predicting what you can expect is a bit of a crapshoot.

Wide Receiver: With the new spread offense comes more receptions for the WR core. Phillip Livas was a dual threat player back in 2008 before slipping into the background in 2009. Now Tennessee transfer Ahmad Paige will be in the mix and he could serve as the primary target. Somebody will need to catch all those passes, but exactly who is the biggest question with these two.

MISSOURI
Wide Receiver: The Missouri offense will be clicking through the air again, but somebody needs to step up at WR. Jerrell Jackson looks to be the top outside WR, while Wes Kemp will be the star player lining up in the slot. It’s difficult to determine if one of these guys will be leaned on as the primary target, or if the production will be split between them. Jackson should be the big play threat while Kemp should command more of the redzone and screen game receptions.

Tight End: Before the 2009 season Missouri was a hotbed for fantasy TEs. The TE was not as important in the offense last season, and it looks like two TEs could be utilized in 2010. Andrew Jones is the bigger, traditional TE. Michael Egnew is a slimmer flex style of TE. The coaches may split the TE production between these two as they rotate them by situation.

OKLAHOMA STATE
Wide Receiver: The installation of the new Houston style spread offense has fantasy eyes looking for the next feature WR. Robert Anyiam is the most experienced and plays on the outside where he provides a big play threat to the offense. But Tracy Moore is a big bodied possession WR that plays in the slot, and it has been this type of WR that has been a center piece of the Houston offense. Drafting either of these guys with the hopes of a breakout season is purely a leap of faith since the receiving production could get divided evenly amongst the WR core.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Quarterback: Although Stephen Garcia is the returning starter, his spring camp performance has opened up a QB battle that will continue into fall camp. Garcia is an intriguing sleeper target in fantasy drafts, but even if he does win the starting job it’s possible that the coaches could rotate QBs throughout the season as they have in seasons past.

Wide Receiver: Alston Jeffery is a physical specimen of a WR that looks to be the main receiving target for 2010. But the spring had numerous issues pop-up with Jeffery involving everything from academics to poor attitude and work ethic. These are all red flags that could lead to possible suspensions in the fall. It’s just too difficult to expect him to play in all the regular season games when he’s dragging this much baggage into fall camp.

SOUTHERN MISS
Quarterback: With Austin Davis coming back from a season ending knee injury, fall camp will open with the QB competition in full swing. But Martevious Young played extremely well in Davis’ absence during the 2009 season as well as during spring camp. Either guy could win this battle, and there’s always the possibility that both guys are used in some capacity in the fall.

TEXAS
Running Back: While Colt McCoy was leading the offense he was used as the primary running threat. The RBs were used in a rotation to compliment McCoy. Now in 2010 the coaches are going to use the RBs more to take pressure off of Garrett Gilbert. With all the talent that’s in the Texas backfield, it’s more than likely that multiple backs will be utilized once again in 2010.

Wide Receiver: The loss of Jordan Shipley leaves a bunch of receptions up for grabs in 2010. There was no WR that stood out by the end of spring camp, providing no insight as to who could be the feature WR. Odds are that the bulk of the production might be split rather evenly between James Kirkendoll and Malcolm Williams.

TEXAS TECH
Quarterback: Steven Sheffield and Taylor Potts will enter fall camp healthy and ready to compete for the starting QB job. The coaches have stated they don’t want to rotate QBs, but there are issues with each player that could lead to a rotation. Sheffield has been battling injury issues since the fall of 2009 and there’s always the concern he could miss time again this fall. Potts can be unimpressive at times. If he hits a cold streak and the offense is stagnant, it would be hard for the coaches to keep Sheffield on the bench.

Running Back: Baron Batch has been the top RB at Tech over the past few seasons. He will be entering fall camp “recovered” from a sports hernia suffered in spring camp. It takes a good amount of time before you can return at 100% playing speed from a sports hernia. If he is able to play yet slowed by the recovery, expect Harrison Jeffers to eat into Batch’s playing time.

USC
Running Back: Lane Kiffin takes over at USC and fantasy owners are envisioning Montario Hardesty type numbers for a Trojan back. The problem is that there are a bunch of talented backs at USC where no single guy stands out like Hardesty did at Tennessee. It’s more likely that more than one RB is utilized than the chances one single guy becomes a workhorse RB.

VIRGINIA TECH
Running Back: Ryan Williams returns as the starting RB for 2010. But 2008 starter Darren Evans comes back from a knee injury this fall and reports from summer workouts say he is moving better than ever. The coaches have added more two back formations so both backs can be on the field together. This will eat into Williams’ production for 2010. Another thing that will eat into his production is the fact the coaches want Tyrod Taylor to run the ball more this fall also.



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