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Report Cards - 06/07/09 EXPERTS Mock Draft

On June 7th, CollegeFootballGeek.com assembled the best minds in college fantasy football and conducted an Experts Mock Draft.
A little Sunday night Mock N’ Roll, if you will.
The esteemed panel of experts included (in draft order):
1. Nathan Karp (U-Sports)
2. Steven Lassan (Athlon)
3. Drew Smith (FCBlitz)
4. Alex Esselink (CFFinsider)
5. Todd DeVries (CollegeFootballGeek)
6. Braden Gall (Athlon)
7. Jason Roberts (Prism Press Group)
8. Neil Young (renowned enthusiast)
9. Joe Arpasi (CollegeFootballGeek)
10. Vince Mullins (FCBlitz)
Who had the best draft? Judge for yourself after the jump…
Mock Draft Rules
Talent Pool: All-FBS (120 teams)
Rounds: 14
Scoring system:
.04 pts per passing yard
.01 pts per rushing/receiving yard
.50 pts per reception
4.0 pts per passing TD
6.0 pts per rushing/receiving TD
-2.0 pts per INT
Starting lineups:
2 QB
3 RB
3 WR
1 TE
1 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
*must draft at least one back up at QB, RB and WRExperts Mock - Round One
RD POS PLAYER SCHOOL EXPERT 1.01 QB Tim Tebow Florida Karp 1.02 QB Case Keenum Houston Lassan 1.03 QB Sam Bradford Oklahoma Smith 1.04 QB Colt McCoy Texas Esselink 1.05 WR Dez Bryant Oklahoma St. DeVries 1.06 QB Dan LeFevour Central Michigan Gall 1.07 QB Colin Kaepernick Nevada Roberts 1.08 QB Taylor Potts Texas Tech Young 1.09 RB Andre Anderson Tulane Arpasi 1.10 WR Dezmon Briscoe Kansas Mullins First round analysis:
Karp is a diehard Gator fan, so his selection of Tim Tebow was not too surprising to the rest of us. However, the smart pick for every non-Florida fanatic is Case Keenum. Lassan scooped him up in the number two hole. Despite many thinking Sam Bradford might have a dip in production, Drew Smith took him at No. 3. It is noteworthy that more wide receivers went in the first round (two) than running backs (one). You don’t see that phenomenon occur too often. The reason? There is no clear cut number one RB this year. There is a group of 6-8 guys that could fit the bill. Everyone in the room knew this, and decided to wait until round two to get in on that action.
Experts Mock - Round Two
RD POS PLAYER SCHOOL EXPERT 2.01 RB James Starks Buffalo Mullins 2.02 WR DeAndre Brown Southern Miss Arpasi 2.03 WR Jordan Shipley Texas Young 2.04 RB Jacquizz Rodgers Oregon State Roberts 2.05 RB LaGarrette Blount Oregon Gall 2.06 RB Bryce Beall Houston DeVries 2.07 RB Jahvid Best Cal Esselink 2.08 RB John Clay Wisconsin Smith 2.09 RB Kendall Hunter Oklahoma State Lassan 2.10 RB Demarco Murray Oklahoma Karp Second round analysis:
Overall, there was nothing shocking about this round. Eight running backs went in this stanza. The only selection that might have raised an eyebrow was Smith taking John Clay over Kendall Hunter. Once again, Lassan was the benefactor of that decision and he quickly snagged the stud Oklahoma State running back at 2.09. Arpasi has heard enough good news this off-season regarding DeAndre Brown to warrant grabbing the Southern Miss WR with the No. 12 overall pick. Brown has been on the mend since breaking his leg back in December.
Experts Mock - Round Three
RD POS PLAYER SCHOOL EXPERT 3.01 RB MiQuale Lewis Ball State Karp 3.02 RB Eugene Jarvis Kent State Lassan 3.03 RB Matt Asiata Utah Smith 3.04 TE Rob Gronkowski Arizona Esselink 3.05 WR Aldrick Robinson SMU DeVries 3.06 RB Jonathan Dwyer Georgia Tech Gall 3.07 QB Robert Griffin Baylor Roberts 3.08 WR Marty Gilyard Cincinnati Young 3.09 QB Austin Davis Southern Miss Arpasi 3.10 QB Zac Robinson Oklahoma State Mullins Third round round analysis:
The MAC RB duo of MiQuale Lewis and Eugene Jarvis kicked off the round. Smith took a shot with the high ceiling of Matt Asiata. Then things got interesting with Esselink dropping a Gronk Bomb on us at 3.04 (24th overall selection). We love the big Arizona tight end, but didn’t expect him to go quite this early. It caused everyone to recalibrate their tight end strategy going forward. Roberts snagged Baylor QB Robert Griffin at 3.07, which seems to be the value pick of the round.For a full listing of the picks in rounds 4-14, pay a visit to our ‘Mock Drafts’ message board by clicking here. Chime in and let us know what you think.
Interesting Draft Tidbits
* Hard to believe that only one RB went in the first round.
* Eight of the first 20 players were from the Big 12.
* The waiting game. Neil Young didn’t grab RB until Daniel Porter at 6.03. DeVries waited until 8.06 to grab his first QB (Jeremiah Masoli). And both still fielded pretty good-looking teams.
* Esselink wins the C.Y.A. award by hedging his Tulsa QB gamble - grabbing Shavodrick Beaver in the late rounds to cover his tracks in the event that Jacob Bower doesn’t wind up winning the starting job.
* Nevada RB Vai Taua dropped all the way down to the 12th round. Teammate Luke Lippincott went two rounds earlier - and he’s coming off a serious knee injury!
* Vince Mullins is all aboard the MTSU Train - grabbing QB Dwight Dasher and RB Phillip Tanner. We like it.Position Unit Rankings
QB
1. Neil Young (Potts, Vittatoe, Alexander)
2. Roberts (Kaepernick, Griffin, Grothe)
3. Lassan (Keenum, Reesing, Pike)
4. Arpasi (Davis, Webb, Arnaud)RB
1. Lassan (Hunter, Jarvis, C.Brown, Minor, Taua)
2. DeVries (Beall, Royster, Batch, Gerhart, Sharp)
3. Smith (J.Clay, Asiata, Fletcher, Avery, Arnold) - love the upside
4. Esselink (Best, Ingram, Hampton, C.Clay, Baker)WR
1. Arpasi (D.Brown, Sanders, Hilton, Adams, J.Williams)
2. Neil Young (Shipley, Gilyard, D.Johnson, Wellington, Jacobson)
3. DeVries (D.Bryant, A.Robinson, Wolfe, Jurovich, B.Banks)
4. Lassan (A.Brown, Tate, Moturi, Meier, Gent)TE
1. DeVries (Gresham)
2. Esselink (Gronkowski)
3. Roberts (Pitta, Dickson)
4. Arpasi (Harmon, A.Jones)Quotables
Steven Lassan, Athlon
Was surprised to see Rob Gronkowski go as the first tight end. I figured Jermaine Gresham was a lock to go No. 1 at that position. It’s also interesting to note Gronkowski came off the board in round three, which is earlier than I think we’ve seen tight ends go in recent years.
I think the fact Bryant and Briscoe both went in the first round is a good indication of how weak the top of the running back class is. Although Anderson, Starks, Rodgers, Blount and Beall are solid, I don’t think any of those guys are a strong No. 1. Bryant and Briscoe will be steady week-to-week options and should score as many points as a RB1.
In a league where you get points per reception, Baron Batch and Bryce Beall are good picks. Even if they don’t get into the endzone, they are going to catch a couple of passes per week.
Austen Arnaud might be the best QB3 in this league, I like him a lot this year as one of the biggest sleepers at quarterbacks.
Some thoughts on my draft….
Was surprised to get Keenum at No. 2, but then again, I wasn’t expecting Nathan to pass on Tebow. Running backs are in good shape, Minor should be the go-to guy in the Michigan offense this year and Eugene Jarvis will be running behind one of the top offensive lines in the MAC. My receiver spots might be the biggest question mark, but I feel Moturi will be back at 100 percent and should lead the team in catches, while Tate and Brown should be good bets in PPR leagues.Nathan Karp, U-Sports
On his 1.01 Tim Tebow selection… A bit of a homer stretch to be sure, but I can’t see going wrong picking Tebow albeit a few picks early
On Sam Bradford... My gut tells me Bradford will have less production with a less mature O-Line and better Big 12 defenses in 09 vs. 08. I had him 8th on my list.
On Colin Kaepernick... Great value at 1.07.
On LaGarrette Blount... Surprised to see Blount not taken as the 1st or 2nd RB.
On his 3.01 Miquale Lewis selection… Best ‘08 fantasy numbers of any returning back. I love the fantasy potential when great players play on mediocre teams.
On his 5.01 D.J. Williams selection… Got my No. 2 TE just as the TE run started.
On Harvey Unga... Great value here at 6.01. Surprised he lasted this long.
On Jevan Snead, Bo Levi Mitchell and Greg Alexander going in the 12th round… Three quality QBs were taken in this round.
On his 13.01 Jake Locker selection… Hoping for big numbers with a healthy thumb.
On DeVries taking Kevin Jurovich at 13.05… Phenomenal upside potential.
On Gall taking Joe McKnight at 13.06… Couldn’t believe McKnight was still available at this point.Alex Esselink, CFFinsider
If I could trade places with any person in the draft it would be Neil Young. He can obviously draft better than he can sing. Two players I went into the draft targeting (but didn’t get) were RB Daniel Porter and QB Greg Alexander. Both have tremendous upside and can be had on the cheap. WR Chris Wellington might be the best fantasy player most have never heard of. All and all, Young’s draft’s is full of high risk/reward picks, but those are the rosters I like.
The QB combo of Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin are sure to score some major points for Jason Roberts given the scoring format…RB Andre Anderson might be the best first round pick of the draft. I will likely regret not pulling the trigger from the 4 spot…I think some of us were asleep at the wheel by letting RB Vai Taua and WR Kevin Jurovich slide so far. I know I was…If Jacob Bower wins the QB job at Tulsa this thing will be over by week 4. If not, I will hide and pretend this draft never happened.Joe Arpasi’s Best and Worst List
Best Picks:
3.07 - Robert Griffin (Roberts)
6.02 - Emmanual Sanders (Arpasi)
7.04 - Charles Clay (Esselink)
9.04 - Jacob Bower (Esselink)
10.02 - Kris Adams (Arpasi)
10.06 - Ryan Wolfe (DeVries)
10.09 - Kerry Meier (Lassan)
11.01 - James Rodgers (Karp)
13.05 - Kevin Jurovich (DeVries)
13.09 - Jeremy WIlliams (Arpasi)
14.02 - Andrew Jones (Arpasi)
14.09 - Cortez Gent (Lassan)Worst Picks:
2.08 - John Clay (Smith)
3.04 - Rob Gronkowski (Esselink)
6.10 - Julio Jones (Karp)
8.10 - A.J. Green (Karp)
9.10 - Tim Brown (Mullins)Too Early:
5.01 - D.J. Williams (Karp)
5.04 - Patrick Edwards (Esselink)
6.07 - Jewel Hampton (Esselink)
7.10 - Mario Fannin (Mullins)
10.04 - Randall Cobb (Roberts)
13.06 - Joe McKnight (Gall)Too Late:
8.02 - Joe Webb (Arpasi)
11.05 - Jake Sharp (DeVries)
12.09 - Vai Taua (Lassan)
14.05 - Adron Tennell (Gall)
Roster Analysis - Todd DeVries (CollegeFootballGeek.com)RD OVERALL POS PLAYER SCHOOL 8.06 76 QB1 Jeremiah Masoli Oregon 9.05 85 QB2 Kellen Moore Boise State 12.06 116 QB3 Bo Levi Mitchell SMU 2.06 16 RB1 Bryce Beall Houston 5.05 45 RB2 Evan Royster Penn State 6.06 56 RB3 Baron Batch Texas Tech 7.05 65 RB4 Toby Gerhart Stanford 11.05 105 RB5 Jake Sharp Kansas 4.06 36 TE1 Jermaine Gresham Oklahoma 1.05 5 WR1 Dez Bryant Oklahoma State 3.05 25 WR2 Aldrick Robinson SMU 10.06 96 WR3 Ryan Wolfe UNLV 13.05 125 WR4 Kevin Jurovich San Jose State 14.06 136 WR5 Brandon Banks Kansas State
Strategy
Best Picks
My strategy going in was to simply draft for value in the early rounds. That typically means a top flight wide receiver will fall in my lap, and that’s exactly what happened here with Dez Bryant at 1.05. A no-brainer value pick in my book. The second round was a choice between several top backs and I decided to stay true to our current Big Board rankings and went with Bryce Beall - a valuable commodity in PPR leagues like this one.
I thought I could wait until middle rounds to grab my QBs targets of Trevor Vittatoe and Joe Webb. And my plan nearly worked, if it weren’t for those meddling kids (Young and Arpasi). In the blink of an eye, this duo snatched both of my guys. I had waited one round too long.
Being that this was a PPR mock, I wanted to ensure that I snagged several RBs that could catch the ball. And with Beall, Batch, and Sharp on my roster, I consider this ‘mission accomplished’.
The Second-Guess Pick
I really couldn’t believe I was able to get Kevin Jurovich in the 13th round. I consider that to be a steal. I was also happy to grab Bo Levi Mitchell in the 12th. He is one of those big-upside guys that could wind up as a Top 10 QB by season’s end.
Final thought
In the third round, I was torn between Robert Griffin and Aldrick Robinson. I figured I’d pass on Griff and stick to my original QB strategy of waiting on Webb and/or Vittatoe - which didn’t wind up panning out. All was not lost, however, as A-Rob forms one heck of a duo with Dez Bryant - two of the Top 4 WRs on our Big Board.
The value at RB in the middle rounds was staggering. I was hoping to get either Royster, Batch or Gerhart - and I would up with all three! Couple this with a very strong WR corps, a Top 2 TE in Gresham, and three QBs with upside…this is a playoff team in this mock league.
Roster Analysis - Joe Arpasi (CollegeFootballGeek.com)RD OVERALL POS PLAYER SCHOOL 3.09 29 QB1 Austin Davis Southern Miss 8.02 72 QB2 Joe Webb UAB 11.09 109 QB3 Austen Arnaud Iowa State 1.09 9 RB1 Andre Anderson Tulane 4.02 32 RB2 Michael Smith Arkansas 9.09 89 RB3 DuJuan Harris Troy 12.02 <112 RB4 Cam Montgomery North Texas 5.09 49 TE1 Jason Harmon FAU 14.02 132 TE2 Andrew Jones Missouri 2.02 12 WR1 DeAndre Brown Southern Miss 6.02 52 WR2 Emmanual Sanders SMU 7.09 69 WR3 TY Hilton FIU 10.02 92 WR4 Kris Adams UTEP 13.09 129 WR5 Jeremy Williams Tulane
Arpasi on his squad:
I loved my first two picks. I got the #1 RB on my board, and the #2 WR on my board. Great value with these two picks, and both have cupcake SOS. 3rd round was hoping Robert Griffin would fall to me but he was snagged up 2 picks ahead of me. Not many top QBs were left on the board so I jumped on a QB since we were starting two. I didn’t want to make myself too weak and have two 2nd tier guys as my starters. Austin Davis was available and I am very high on him. He has room to improve this year, and if Damion Fletcher is suspended or kicked off the team Davis will steal some goal-line rushing TDs. I knew I was going to take the best value for RB or WR in the fourth and Michael Smith was there for me. You know I live the Little Workhorse, and felt that I was very strong through my first four picks. And then the TE run started four picks after my round four selection. This was the worst position for me to be in for a TE run. I had almost two whole rounds in between picks and I was watching TE after TE fly off the board. So when my fifth round pick came I had no choice but to go TE. I was very happy to get Jason Harmon in the fifth round, especially since he was the 7th TE selected. He shouldn’t have still been there for me, but I’m not complaining. I was left looking at getting a second WR with my next pick and I was amazed to get Emmanual Sanders this late in the draft. to get the #7 WR on my board in the 6th round, and in an offense that has a VERY high ceiling was a STEAL in this pick.
Now I was in a position to draft by value over the next three selections and get 1 QB, RB, WR to round out my starting line-up. A bunch of RBs went before my 7th round pick and the value that was there at RB was taken away. So I was left in awe again about what WRs were left on the board in the 7th. TY Hilton is my boy and I loved snagging him up.. With my WRs complete, I had the #1, 7, & 9 WRs on my draft board. By far, arguably the best starting WR core of this draft. As my next pick came up I knew there wasn’t much value at RB so I looked at QB and saw that a 1st tier guy was still on the board. It was a no-brainer to snag up Joe Webb in the 8th. With my starting QBs now taken care of I got two 1st tier guys, both are run/pass threats, and I felt like I got real good value drafting my two guys in the 3rd and 8th rounds. To snag two 1st tier guys in those rounds is pretty good and I felt like it helped me snag the value I had at RB and WR. So in the 9th I had to finish out my starting RBs and this was my least favorite pick. Most value was gone and I wasn’t real high on having any of the available guys as a starter. I went with DuJuan Harris in this spot instead of guys like Jeremy Avery and Roy Helu since Harris has the best linemen and SOS rating of the available RBs. So My RBs are top heavy with Anderson and Smith, and lacking at the bottom in Harris. I really wanted to draft another RB in the 10th to strength up that position group but I saw that Kris Adams was still available. I couldn’t believe he slipped this far and I was obligated to jump on him. This was maybe the best pick I had in the entire draft!
Now I’m just drafting for value on my bench and I’m not concerned with specific positions as much as I am about building a talented and deep bench. I once again passed on RB since there just wasn’t much value there and I snagged up Austen Arnaud. I passed on Greg Alexander of Hawaii only to get a guy we have high on our site, and because he is in a position in the big 12 where their team should be playing from behind almost every week. I’m going for the higher ceiling here and a guy that has a favorable SOS. Now in the 12th I had to go RB and I reached a little to get Cam Montgomery. Would he have made it all the way to my 13th selection? Maybe. But I needed help at RB and since the talent was getting low I knew this was going to be my last RB selection. I think he has big upside and I had him projected into the 2nd tier of RBs. We dropped him down to the 3rd tier as we did ranking just because of the ?s around that offense. My last two picks were the 2nd and 3rd best picks I made in this draft. I got HUGE value and upside with Jeremy Williams and Andrew Jones. Now I had the most talented WR core in the draft, and maybe the best 1-2 punch at TE as well. All in all I feel the same after every draft. Pretty good about my QBs, a sick WR core, a little down about my RBs - but I like the top 2 guys I have a lot, and good about my TEs.For a full listing of all the experts’ rosters, click here.
Matt Brown to start over Bernard Pierce
Trey Watts named starting tailback for Tulsa
ECU starting QB changes every day
WR Rodney Bradley injured again
Bryant Moniz knocked out of game
Kyle Rudolph expected to start
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