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CFG Mock Draft - June 17th - Analysis

Contributed by: Todd DeVries
Last Updated: Jun 21, 2010 8:21 PM

For round-by-round mock draft selections, go here. For team-by-team mock draft selections, go here. Joes Analysis My Draft Strategy: I drew a draft position at the end of the first round. With this position many of the stud fantasy QBs will be gone by my first selection. Also, there will be stud fantasy RBs available with both the 1st

For round-by-round mock draft selections, go here.
For team-by-team mock draft selections, go here.



Joe's Analysis

My Draft Strategy:
I drew a draft position at the end of the first round. With this position many of the stud fantasy QBs will be gone by my first selection. Also, there will be stud fantasy RBs available with both the 1st and 2nd round selections. So the first part of my draft strategy was to wait on drafting QBs, and focus on locking down two stud RBs at the beginning of the draft. After the first selections, my focus was on getting the best WR available in the third round, and then focus on a QB in the fourth round. After selecting a QB, I wanted to draft for the best players available while shooting for value. While drafting for value, I knew I needed to lock down a good QB2 and QB3 that could be used in a rotation. Once I had established a couple of back-ups, I wanted to focus on high flyer candidates instead of Steady Eddie types. With the drop off in talent by the back third of the draft, its best to go after several high flyers that could pay off big.

My Favorite Pick:
QB Cam Newton, Auburn (12.02) - The draft format was for two starting QBs. Since I waited on drafting QBs, I realized that I needed to draft several good back-ups. Newton was my fourth QB selected, but has the ability to be the second best on my squad by season end. Grabbing such a high flyer in the 12th round with this draft strategy was easily the best move made.

Second Thoughts:
TE Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame (07.11) - I am not a fan of the TE class this year. There isn’t that much of production gap between the top returning TEs and the top TE sleepers. Because the gap is so small and the sleepers can be had much later in the draft, I prefer to skip on the returning studs. By the time I was making my 7th and 8th round selections on the turn, the RBs and WRs I was targeting were guys that I could get in the next turn of selections. So I decided to go after the top selections at QB and TE instead. Although there was reasoning behind taking Rudolph, I'm still not happy with the move purely based on my approach on drafting TEs this year.

The One That Got Away
By the time I was looking at options for my fourth RB, I felt like going after a good flyer was the best approach. Louisiana Tech's Lennon Creer was the man I had targeted, and I felt like I could wait on him. I was all ready to jump on Creer in the 13th round, when Creer was snatched up just five picks before my selection. With Creer off the board, and the other potential flyer being higher risk, I was forced to go with more predictable RB options that have lower fantasy ceilings.

5 Best Value Picks

06.06 Dwayne Harris (WR, East Carolina)- Harris will be a legitimate top 10 fantasy WR for 2010. Being able to grab a top 10 guy as the 21st WR off the board is a great value selection.

15.07 Austin Arnaud (QB, Iowa State) - Arnaud will be overlooked in most drafts by players that Arnaud will out produce. Picking Arnaud up in the 15th round was the best steal of the draft. He doesn't grab as many headlines as many of the sleeper names, but he will be a more consistent fantasy option from Week 1-13.

14.10 Wes Kemp (WR, Missouri) - Jerrel Jackson looks to be the top receiver, but Kemp will provide a good deep threat on the outside. Don't be surprised if Kemp out produces expectations due to his ability to command passes in the redzone.

08.05 Josh Nesbitt (QB, Georgia Tech) - Nesbitt was passed over for more trendy names on the hopes of a high risk/high reward payoff. Nesbitt will be much more reliable week to week than the trendy players. With the loss of fullback Jonathan Dwyer, expect Nesbitt to rack up more rushing TDs than he totaled in 2009.

12.12 Andy Dalton (QB, TCU) - Dalton is another overlooked returning player. He has a bunch of returning talent around him. He will make a great bench player that you can count on being there later in your draft.

5 Head Scratchers:

01.09 Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas) - Mallet will be a solid fantasy option, but a first round selection is just too high. Mallet was the fifth QB off the board. Do I really need to say 2010's Jevan Snead?

05.10 Steven Sheffield & 10.03 Taylor Potts (QBs, Texas Tech) - Both QBs were neck-n-neck in the spring while competing for the starting job. Right when there started to be a little separation, both got hurt and left us waiting for news emerging from the middle of fall camp to get more insight on who will win the job. Using 20% of your top 10 picks on this pair just seems like too high a price to pay for such an uncertain situation, especially when you realize that you are using that 20% on only one guy that can play at a time in your fantasy line-up.

06.05 Doug Martin (RB, Boise State) - Maybe it was a case of being unprepared, but it's almost impossible to justify Martin in the 6th round. Boise State employs a two back situation, so split carries are unavoidable. Although Martin finished 2009 as the #2 RB, it was only because D.J. Harper was hurt early in the season. With Harper healthy again, Martin looks to be the third back in a two back situation.

09.09 Scott Tolzien (QB, Wisconsin)- Tolzien does't get enough touchdown opportunities to be a quality fantasy QB. Even in real deep BCS only leagues, drafting Tolzien is a real stretch. This could be another case of not having enough time for preparation.

06.03 Lance Kendricks (TE, Wisconsin) - Selecting Kendricks as your TE is a quality fantasy selection. But using a sixth round pick is rather high considering there isn't that much value difference between Kendricks and the top sleeper TEs. Add in the fact that this was the same team that used 20% of their top 10 picks on the Texas Tech QB combo, and it makes it difficult to justify the high prices spent on 3 of the top 10 picks for that team.

 

Kevin's Analysis

Draft Strategy
Picking in the #4 slot seemed like the perfect spot to grab the #1 RB on the board, Jacquizz Rodgers, with the big three QBs (Case Keenum, Colin Kaepernick, and Dwight Dasher) predictably filling up the first three selections. With the top QBs and RBs off the board, I decided it would be best to grab Michael Floyd and have a top 3 WR. From this point on it was basically a question of getting a solid #2 RB which I think was accomplished with LaMichael James, and getting two weekly starters at the QB position which came in the form of Jake Locker and Landry Jones. Overall, I think the team that I drafted is solid across the board and could compete for the playoffs in many leagues.

My Favorite Pick:
QB Landry Jones @ 06.09 - He could be in store for a huge year with the weapons around him and to get him as my #2 QB at this point was very satisfying.

Second Thoughts:
WR Alex Torres @ 05.04 - While I don’t really think it was a terrible pick; it might appear a bit early for Torres. I do think he will catch around 90 balls this year so I liked him in a PPR draft.

The One That Got Away:
This actually happened twice as I was all set to grab Randall Cobb @ 5.04 only to see him go one pick in front of me, so I had to settle for Alex Torres. Then at 9.04 it appeared that Ronald Johnson would fall right in my lap, but it was not to be as he went the pick before mine.

5 Best Value Picks:

05.03 Randall Cobb (WR, Kentucky) - I think he is in for a huge year and was a great value in the 5th round.

07.09 Jermaine Kearse (WR, Washington)- He looks poised to have a break out season and could end up being a low end #1 WR

08.07 Alexander Robinson (RB, Iowa State) - He is a very productive back who could account for 1500 total yards and 10-15 scores, not bad for the 8th round.

12.02 Cameron Newton (QB, Auburn)- Newton should fit perfectly in the Auburn offense with his running and throwing abilities. He could be a steal here in a potentially high-powered offense.

13.01 Isiah Pead (RB, Cincinnati)- Pead could really blossom in the Bearcats potent offense. It’s always nice to get a RB with 1000 yard capability in the 13th round of any draft.

5 Head Scratchers:

06.12 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)- While Luck has the build of a prototype pro quarterback, he plays in a conservative and balanced offense that probably will not lead to big numbers. I don't believe him to be a weekly fantasy starter in 2010.

08.01 Lyle Leong (WR, Texas Tech)- I was very surprised to see Leong come off the board here, especially with plenty of quality wide outs left to choose. While he did get Detron Lewis three round later, the 8th round still seems way too early to take Leong.

09.08 Cody Johnson (RB, Texas)- This was the most shocking pick in the entire draft in my opinion. The Texas RB situation is a muddled mess to put it nicely and Johnson will probably only serve as the short yardage/goal line back. There were plenty of quality fantasy backs still on the board at this point that should be much more productive this season.

09.09 Scott Tolzien (QB, Wisconsin)- He probably will not get drafted in many BCS only leagues let alone All 120 leagues. He is a good QB on the field, but that doesn't equate to fantasy success. Wisconsin just runs the ball too much for a QB to post gaudy numbers.

12.05 Trey Revell (QB, La Monroe)- He is not even the starter as we head into the fall, with Kolton Browning passing him on the depth chart this spring.


Todd's Analysis

My Draft Strategy:
Drafting from the 6-hole, I made the decision beforehand to go with the ever-popular RB-RB strategy in the first two rounds. Buckram and Taua fit the bill. After that, I was intending to swoop up some WRs with my next couple picks and wait on QB, but when Collaros fell to me in round 3, I couldn't resist the temptation. Our early projections have the Cincy Bearcat shaping up as a top shelf fantasy QB. The same thing happened when Kinne was hanging out there in the 5th round - just too good to pass up. So my wait on my QB strategy kind of fizzled out as I was stocked at the position just 5 rounds in. Other than that, I drafted for value and was rewarded with a nice crop of RBs. My WRs aren't going to blow anyone away, but they offer some promise. I would consider them the weakness of my squad. At TE, there were plenty of solid options in a late rounds and I was happy to land Rob Housler.

My Favorite Pick:
8.07 Alexander Robinson (RB, Iowa State) - The always underappreciated A-Rob seemed like a good value pick as the #32 RB off the board. He'll make a great RB4 on my roster, especially in this PPR format.

Second Thoughts:
9.06 Jereme Brooks (WR, Utah) - For reasons unknown, I've been slow to warm up to Brooks as a true fantasy factor, but I took the leap of faith here. I'd feel better if he were my WR4, instead of a WR3.

The One That Got Away:
6.06 Dwayne Harris (WR, East Carolina) - I nearly selected Harris in the 5th round and he almost slipped all the way down to me in the 6t. Almost. Bevo snagged him one pick prior. Doh!

5 Best Value Picks:

05.11 Aldrick Robinson (WR, SMU) - It was surprising to see Aldrick go off the board as the 21st WR,  Thought he'd go higher.

06.06 Dwayne Harris (WR, East Carolina) - This guy proved last year that he was a fantasy force. With a new pass-heavy offense on campus, he should continue to thrive.

06.10 Diondre Borel (QB, Utah State) - Borel is one of those guys who will fall into the middle rounds simply because people aren't familiar with his talents.  The fear of the unknown, so-to-speak. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger on him as a strong QB2. Like the unknown Joe Webb last year, he has Top 10 potential.

08.03 Terrelle Pryor (QB, Ohio State) - Considering TP went 3rd OVERALL in the Athlon Sports Mock Draft, I thought it was worth noting that he went in the 8th round here (19th QB selected). Nice value.
   
16.08 Dayne Crist (QB, Notre Dame) - It was refreshing to see that Crist wasn't over-drafted here, as ND QBs typically are, but for him to fall this far was shocking.

5 Head Scratchers:

01.09 Ryan Mallet (QB, Arkansas) -  Too high for a QB who has to run the SEC gauntlet. If this were a BCS-only league, it would be another story. But in this format, I wouldn't pull the trigger on Mallett this early.

04.01 Jonathan Baldwin (WR, Pittsburgh) - I like Baldwin a lot, but not more than some others that were selected after him (Damaris Johnson, Eric Page, Austin Pettis, Armon Binns, Randall Cobb, etc.).  Baldwin could've been had a few rounds later.

08.01 Lyle Leong (WR, Texas Tech) - Leong was taken 47 picks ahead of teammate Detron Lewis, who is widely considered to be the better fantasy option of the two.

Alabama WR Julio Jones was not selected! Hallelujah! - After two years of disappointing fantasy results, it appears that folks are finally catching on to the fact that Julio just isn't a great option in All-120 formats. Kudos to our drafters.



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