Burning Question #1: Who’s the No. 1 Pick? |
We conclude our Burning Questions series with a look at the top of our early draft boards. Who is the number one overall college fantasy football prospect for 2009?
Find out after the jump…
Assumptions
10 team league
Head-to-Head league (not total points)
Starters: 1-QB, 2-RB, 3-WR (TE, PK and DE are not relevant to this discussion).
Scoring: 1pt per 25 passing yds, 1pt per 10 rush/rec yards, 4 pts per passing TD, 6 pts per rush/rec TD.
Let’s break this down into two camps: the All-120 leagues, and the BCS-only leagues.
All-120 Leagues
Cast of Characters:
Case Keenum (QB, Houston)
MiQuale Lewis (RB, Ball State)
James Starks (RB, Buffalo)
LaGarrette Blount (RB, Oregon)
Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
What’s the scoop?
Keenum and Bryant are consensus top picks at their positions. In our view, the top RB position is currently up for debate between Lewis, Starks and Blount.
We applied our Value Based Drafting philosophy to some rough statistical projections, and found that there was very little separation between this five-some. Keenum came out ahead of the pack, but wasn’t a complete slam dunk.
Conventional fantasy wisdom is to grab a RB in the top spot and build from there. The perception is that WR’s are too inconsistent to warrant the top honor, and QB depth is strong enough that you can find quality options later (in All-120 leagues). True workhorse RB’s, on the other hand, are tough to find.
If your fantasy draft was today (03/27/09)...
The first thing we would do is eliminate Dez Bryant from consideration. While he is a great fantasy WR, he is not on the level of a Crabtree. With Dez out of the picture, your options are to grab the consensus #1 QB in Keenum, or take your pick from one of the stud RB’s.
If your goal is to come out of the first two rounds with a combo of QB-RB*, here are your possible scenarios:
1) Grab QB Keenum first, then select an RB from the likes of a Charles Scott / Jonathan Dwyer / John Clay
2) Grab your RB of choice first, then select a QB from the likes of Trevor Vittatoe / Zac Robinson / Todd Reesing
For us, the temptation of having Keenum in the lineup would be too great to pass up, especially in a year where Texas Tech and Tulsa are going goign through QB transitions. Keenum is a threat to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. If our All-120 draft was today, we’d roll with Case Keenum.
(* Note: we’re not necessarily advocating beginning your draft with a QB-RB. This combo was used for the sake of example)
BCS-Only Leagues
Cast of Characters:
Colt McCoy (QB, Texas)
Tim Tebow (QB, Florida)
LaGarrette Blount (RB, Oregon)
Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State)
What’s the scoop?
BCS-only leagues are a different animal. The draft boards change dramatically, as does the depth at each position.
With Keenum out of the QB mix, your choices at the position are McCoy, Tebow and Bradford. Over at RB, the #1 guy is probably LaGarrette Blount. And Dez Bryant remains the top WR prospect.
As we discussed in Burning Question #16, we think McCoy and Tebow are a cut above Bradford this year. It’s splitting hairs, but we like McCoy over Tebow by the slimmest of margins. So if QB is your fancy, go with Colt.
Your decision comes down to McCoy, Blount or Bryant.
If your fantasy draft was today (03/27/09)...
As we did in the All-120 league, we’d begin the whittling down process by scratching Bryant from the list.
How do we decide between McCoy and Blount? The RB depth appears to be greater than QB depth in BCS-only leagues. According to our “Way Too Early” Rankings, 20 of the top 30 RB’s are from BCS schools, as opposed to 9 of 20 on the QB side of the ledger.
This is a toss up, and might come down to how well you know your opponents. If your league is traditionally RB-heavy in the first two rounds, start the run on the position by taking Blount. A nice QB will be there for you on the back end. If your league is QB-heavy early on, go with McCoy and a nice RB will slide to you.
Based on the leagues we participate in, our pick would be LaGarrette Blount.
So there you have it. Our top picks du jour. It will be interesting to see if anything changes after we analyze spring practice, pick apart the 2009 schedules, compile our projections, apply VBD and ultimately release our Player Rankings 2.0 in May. Stay tuned…
This article can also be found at FoxSports.com.
