The Big Board: CFG Player Rankings - Week 1
Rankings Key
Scoring System Used in Calculations
- 4.0 pts per passing TD
- 1.0 pt per 25 passing yards
- 6.0 pts per rushing/receiving TD
- 1.0 pt per 10 rushing/receiving yards
- 0.5 pts per reception
- -2.0 pts per interception
Assumptions for ‘Draft Value’ Calculation
- Talent Pool: All-FBS (120 schools)
- Number of Teams: 10
- Rounds of Draft: 17
- Starting Lineup: 2 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 PK, 1 DEF
Tiers / Color Key
The tiers are intended to simply group players of similar fantasy production level.
- Green - Elite Tier (not all positions have this level)
- Yellow - 1st Tier
- Blue - 2nd Tier
- Purple - 3rd Tier
- Orange - 4th Tier
- Gray - 5th Tier
- Bright Red - Alert!
Columns - Skill Players
Injury Status
If the player has an injury concern, there will be a red cross in this field.
Stock
If something has caused a player to rise or fall in our rankings, it will be denoted in this column with a green UP arrow or an orange DOWN arrow. A RED exclamation point icon means that a player might have off-the-field problems. A BLACK STAR indicates a player who might be worth handcuffing.
Sleepers
A player will be designated as a sleeper with a Navy Blue "S" in the stock column.
Bye Weeks
Weeks 1-14 are included in this column, but you only need to pay attention to Weeks 1-13 as those are the weeks that the vast majority of leagues will be playing in head-to-head formats. The only leagues that should be playing college fantasy football in week 14 are total points leagues.
Proj. Total Ftsy-Pts
The number of fantasy points a player is projected to score in the entire upcoming season, based on a 12 game season.
Proj. Fantasy PPG
The average number of fantasy points a player will score per game during the upcoming season, based upon the scoring system outlined above.
All-FBS Draft Value
Draft preparation tool that is intended to help the reader create player position tiers and compare the value of players across different positions. This feature is most useful when trying to determine the Top 50 players in an All-FBS (120 schools) league. See more on Draft Value here.
Ret. Off. Starters
Number of previous season's offensive starters that are returning for the 2009 season.
Career O-Line Starts
The amount of career starts a team has coming returning with all their offensive lineman, as compiled by Phil Steele. This is an excellent indicator of an offensive line's experience.
SOS Pass Def.
The average strength of schedule of this players opponent’s passing defenses for the previous season. 1=most difficult SOS. 120=easiest SOS. For a detailed breakdown of each player’s game by game SOS schedule, you can click on the hyperlink in the field..
SOS Rush Def.
The average strength of schedule of this players opponent’s rushing defenses for the previous season. 1=most difficult SOS. 120=easiest SOS. For a detailed breakdown of each player’s game by game SOS schedule, you can click on the hyperlink in the field..
SOS Tot. Def.
The average strength of schedule of this player’s opponent’s total defenses for the previous season. 1=most difficult SOS. 120=easiest SOS. For a detailed breakdown of each player’s game by game SOS schedule, you can click on the hyperlink in the field.
Columns - Defenses
PPG Allowed
The average point per game that fantasy defense is projected to allow in the upcoming season. This figure is a result of a formula that takes into account last season's PPG Allowed, last season's SOS, the upcoming season's returning starters, and the upcoming season's SOS.
YPG Allowed
The average yards per game a fantasy defense is projected to allow in the upcoming season. This figure is a result of a formula that takes into account last season's YPG Allowed, last season's SOS, the upcoming season's returning starters, and the upcoming season's SOS.
Fumb. Rec.
Projected fumble recoveries.
INT
Projected interceptions.
Sacks
Projected sacks.
TD Punt
Projected punt return touchdowns.
TD Kickoff
Projected kickoff return touchdowns.
Def. TD
Projected defensive touchdowns (INT and fumble returns).
Ret. Def. Starters
Number of last season's defensive starters that are returning for the upcoming season.
Columns - Kickers
PAT Made
Projected extra point conversions.
FG Made
Projected field goal conversions.
Big Board - Projection and Ranking Philosophy
How did we compile our Big Board college fantasy football projections and player rankings? This article is intended to help answer that question.
Projections and Rankings Explained
Folks, fantasy football is all about the numbers. That statement might sound obvious, but there are many fantasy players who put too much stock in hunches, school allegiances, and poorly compiled rankings on draft day.
Put your allegiances aside. Keep your gut feelings in check. Gloss over those other ranking “lists”. And immerse yourself in the stats.
The meaningful stats.
This is the key to building a strong foundation to your fantasy football roster.
So, which stats are we talking about here? The following are obviously important:
- Pass Attempts
- Completion %
- Yards per Completion
- Passing Yards
- Interceptions
- Passing TDs
- Rushing Attempts
- Rushing Yards Per Carry
- Rushing TDs
- Receptions
- Receiving Yards Per Catch
- Receiving TDs
- Points Against
- Yards Against
- Sacks
To attempt to accurately project those statistics above, you must take many factors into consideration:
- How many games did the player play last fall? In previous seasons?
- What was his role in the offense last season? Do we expect it to change this year?
- Does he have heavy competition at his position?
- Who else on the offense is returning?
- How experienced is his offensive line?
- Strength of schedule
- Have there been any changes in the coaching staff or general offensive philosophies?
- If the player doesn’t have a track record, can we use the offense’s track record to build a projection? How did players at the position fair in past years under the current coaching staff - whether at this school or in an earlier stop in the coaching ladder?
- What direction did the offensive emphasis go in spring practices?
- Are there injury or off the field concerns?
By taking those items into account, we have a good sense for what a player is going to produce for the upcoming season. Using the statistics above as our guide and baseline, each Geek staffer takes a crack at creating a stat projection for each major player in the country.
We compare notes - partake in a few heated debates - and eventually come to a consensus on groups, or tiers, of players by position. These are players that are of similar fantasy ability level. Once the players are assigned to a tier, we rank within that tier.
Next comes a critical step. Taking all of the information we have gathered, and calculating Fantasy Points Per Game (PPG) and Draft Value.
Fantasy Points Per Game
The fatal flaw that many college fantasy football players make in draft preparation is looking at the previous year’s data without regard to the number of games played. For example, in 2008 Florida QB Tim Tebow accumulated approximately 360 total fantasy points, while Baylor QB Robert Griffin tallied about 300. At first glance, this is a significant difference. However, when you factor in that Tebow played in 14 games to Griffin’s 12, the difference isn’t quite as great as it first appeared. Tebow’s 2008 PPG was 26.07. Griffin’s PPG was 25.33.
Fantasy PPG is the backbone to projecting players and compiling our Big Board rankings. If you aren’t looking at production at the game level, well, then you aren’t doing your homework. It’s a tedious process, but don’t worry - we’ve done all of the dirty work for you. All players on our Big Board have been projected to their 12 game statistical averages. Everyone here is measured by the same standard!
Draft Value
Now that we’ve put all players on an even playing field by assigning each a Fantasy PPG, our rankings are easy to compile for each position. But Fantasy PPG doesn’t translate across positions. Just because a QB scores more points than a RB or WR doesn’t mean he’s more valuable on draft day, right? You need a method to attach a value to each player so that you can make these cross-positional determinations when you’re on the clock.
That’s where Draft Value comes into play.
Draft Value applies your league’s roster criteria into your projections to assign a value to each player. These values aren’t The Bible when it comes to draft day, but they are extremely helpful in grouping players together to help narrow down your choices - specifically for the Top 50 overall players. One other note: Draft Value does not apply to kickers or defenses in the same way as the position players. You should wait on drafting these players until the back end of your draft.
Draft Value is the end result of a complex calculation best described in this article. For the sake of our rankings, we used the following information to create our Draft Value baselines:
- 10 teams
- 17 round draft
- Starting lineups: 2 QB, 3 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 DEF, 1 PK
These numbers are plugged into an equation in our database, and the result is a draft value for each player to help you navigate through the early rounds of your draft.
Scoring System Used in Projections:
- 1.0 pt per 25 passing yards
- 1.0 pt per 10 rushing/receiving yards
- 0.5 pts per reception
- 4.0 pts per passing TD
- 6.0 pts per rushing/receiving TD
- -2.0 pts per INT
